ᖵ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction download ᚬ ePUB By Philip E Tetlock 죥

ᖵ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction download ᚬ ePUB By Philip E Tetlock 죥 ᖵ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction download ᚬ ePUB By Philip E Tetlock 죥 A New York Times BestsellerAn EconomistBest Book of 2015 The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman s Thinking, Fast and Slow Jason Zweig, TheWall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the weeks meals Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts predictions are only slightly better than chance However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why What makes some people so good And can this talent be taught In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government funded forecasting tournament The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary peopleincluding a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancerwho set out to forecast global events Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good Theyve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets Theyve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information They are superforecasters In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group Weaving together stories of forecasting successes the raid on Osama bin Ladens compound and failures the Bay of Pigs and interviews with a range of high level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesnt require powerful computers or arcane methods It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the futurewhether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily lifeand is destined to become a modern classic. Report Related links Report, credit report, research, stock report Kevin Kelly The Next Digital Years Long Now Since the mid s Kevin has been creating, and reporting on, digital future His focus is long term trends social consequences of technology new book, THE INEVITABLE Understanding Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future, a grand synthesis his Larry Kudlow Wikipedia Lawrence Alan born August , an American financial analyst former television host serving as Director National Economic Council under President Donald Trump since began career junior at New York Federal ReserveHe soon left government to work on Wall Street Paine Webber Bear Stearns book offers insights into one most important aspects professional performance, being able predict outcome events which course impossible in casesSuperforecasting Art Science Prediction I Matt have really enjoyed reading Super Forcasting by Phillip E Tetlock Dan Gardner It fun for taking dive forecasting Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction


    • Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
    • 1.3
    • 56
    • Kindle
    • 352 pages
    • 0804136718
    • Philip E Tetlock
    • English
    • 10 April 2018

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