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ᗻ Free ৲ The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't download sites ᚣ Author Nate Silver ᛃ

ᗻ Free ৲ The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't download sites ᚣ Author Nate Silver ᛃ ᗻ Free ৲ The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't download sites ᚣ Author Nate Silver ᛃ Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger all by the time he was 30 The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.com, where Silver is one of the nation s most influential political forecasters Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty Both experts and laypeople mistake confident predictions for accurate ones But overconfidence is often the reason for failure If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too This is the prediction paradox The humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the successful we can be in planning for the future In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share What lies behind their success Are they good or just lucky What patterns have they unraveled And are their forecasts really right He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary and dangerous science Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver s insights are an essential listen. 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    • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't
    • 4.2
    • 491
    • Kindle
    • Nate Silver
    • English
    • 21 September 2016

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