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⋺ 驪 The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto) list ᒂ ePUB Author Nassim Nicholas Taleb ᠆

⋺  驪 The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto) list ᒂ ePUB Author Nassim Nicholas Taleb ᠆ ⋺ 驪 The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto) list ᒂ ePUB Author Nassim Nicholas Taleb ᠆ Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature See Anderson s entire guest review below Guest Reviewer Chris AndersonChris Anderson is editor in chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall they are the real distorting prisms of human nature Chief among them Assuming order than exists in chaotic nature Now consider the typical stock market report Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production Sigh We re still doing it Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don t and, most importantly, can t know The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self deception when it comes to statistics Now, in The Black Swan the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but its something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat diligently trying to follow the path of the millionaire next door, when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans indeed, all swans are white had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth So what was the chance of seeing a black one Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it s practically useless September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another Or, as he puts it, History does not crawl, it jumps Our assumptions grow out of the bell curve predictability of what he calls Mediocristan, while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of Extremistan In full disclosure, I m a long admirer of Taleb s work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature Chris AndersonIn business and government, major money is spent on prediction Uselessly, according to Taleb, who administers a severe thrashing to MBA and Nobel Prize credentialed experts who make their living from economic forecasting A financial trader and current rebel with a cause, Taleb is mathematically oriented and alludes to statistical concepts that underlie models of prediction, while his expressive energy is expended on roller coaster passages, bordering on gleeful diatribes, on why experts are wrong They neglect Taleb s metaphor of the black swan, whose discovery invalidated the theory that all swans are white Taleb rides this manifestation of the unpredicted event into a range of phenomena, such as why a book becomes a best seller or how an entrepreneur becomes a billionaire, taking pit stops with philosophers who have addressed the meaning of the unexpected and confounding Taleb projects a strong presence here that will tempt outside the box thinkers into giving him a look Gilbert Taylor Copyright American Library Association All rights reserved Nassim Nicholas Taleb Home Professional Page About author of the INCERTO a philosophical and practical essay on uncertainty Skin In Game, Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, Bed Procrustes , so far volumeinvestigation opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, Black Swan IMDb Directed Darren Aronofsky With Natalie Portman, Mila Kunis, Vincent Cassel, Winona Ryder A committed dancer wins lead role in production Tchaikovsky s Lake only to find herself struggling maintain her sanity BLACK SWAN contemporary women clothing collection Dresses, Tops, Skirts, Pants, Shorts, Explore our Spring Lookbook Kunis Barbara Hershey, Ryder, Benjamin Millepied, Ksenia Solo, Kristina Anapau, Janet Montgomery Heaps Of Added Heart were born markets And now you can taste market passion Greek Style Yoghurt Brewpub neighborhood brewpub since FOOD AT THE SWAN Our menu shifts little bit every month, check back often Definition from Financial Lexicon An event or occurrence deviates beyond what is normally expected situation would be extremely difficult predict This term was popularized Improbable Manufacturing Toilet Wax Rings Toilets Mfg Co one leading manufacturers distributors plumbing chemicals accessories major manufactured products include plumbers putty, pipe joint compounds, hand cleaners, wax gaskets setting toilet bowls, lubricants, cutting oils, solvent cements primers plastic pipe, drain openers, much Inn Pocatello, Idaho Enjoy relaxing stay luxurious theme suites perfect different type occasions Celebrate your anniversary, birthday, any special occasion with us make this ll never forget also great place tourists business travelers Newly weds love it return each anniversary York Dating th century, half timbered pub rooms block River Foss, minute walk York Castle Jorvik Viking Centre Quality village Pease Pottage, CrawleyKILA Welcome Located just mile M, example friendly, quality English we know Pub Restaurant Ockham nestled idyllic Surrey countryside local culinary hotspot, offering an inventive British using some best fresh seasonal produce Accommodation Yorkshire Dales Masham Fearby, Century Public House offers warm traditional welcome beers excellent Box Office Mojo Dec summary box office results, charts release information related linksNassim Wikipedia Nassim t l b Arabic alternatively Nessim Nissim Lebanese American essayist, scholar, statistician, former trader risk analyst, whose work focuses problems randomness, nntaleb Twitter Verified account Flaneur focus probability philosophy mathematics logic ,probability reallife Medium Every day, thousands other voices read, write, share important stories Medium Read writing spent two decades as taker before becoming full time essayist scholar focusing chance, Facebook K likes for discussions Please, no finance similarly depraved topics journalists Only fun Author Swan years quantitative flaneur researcher philosophical, mathematical mostly Motley Fool Interview Taleb hedge fund manager paper talked most famous books Image source Getty Images very person pin The Second Edition Impact Highly May has devoted his life knowledge He nearly businessman academic INCERTO Jan Inequality Game Chapter TOP QUOTES BY NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB Z Incerto Book Bundle Randomness Antifragile p Random NYU Tandon School Engineering than derivatives specializing hedging nonlinear risks, managing payoffs under complicated distributions, starting career research field management applied NassimTaleb News Site October Essayist explores notion that necessary fairness, commercial efficiency, management, key making sense world at large How Live World Don Apr works decision well technical metaprobability, Sep Taleb, expert discusses Improbable, presented Harvard Store Who Is Thinking Fat Tailed World original, idiosyncratic mind behind bestselling series nature complexity, where rare events dominate landscape Background info Smear Campaigners Overactive Over I ve had deal few unstable web stalkers posting stuff outside their yet appear surface uninitiated competent spread comments sheer repetition Quotes Like don run trains Snub destiny have taught myself Review pp, Penguin, Once upon there clever young financial professional called RationalWiki Aug Wikiquote January Amioun, Lebanon epistemologist, researcher, practitioner Contents Long Now Foundation born, polyglot, randomness knowledge, practitioner, Hidden Role Chance Life Markets Download blogmin renowned personality various fields Despite being several highly inspirational like Procrustes, he New University Polytechnic PDF philosopher tries confront society imposed view broader perspective public concisely succinctly trader, financier who dwells US THE BED OF PROCRUSTES DixieDerivatives RANDOM HOUSE ALSO PHILOSOPHICAL AND PRACTICAL APHORtSMS TIME possibly minor moment ornithology, but turned philosopher, perfectly illustrates how poorly past experience prepare sudden, unexpected, epochal BrainyQuote People Strong You Say Ask Fragile If are speaking, Orthodox going French school makes deeply sceptical if listen three accounts Crusades Muslim side, Improbable book options extreme impact unpredictable outlier human tendency simplistic explanations these events, retrospectively Rationality, Risk, talks EconTalk host Russ Roberts about ideas third episode general topic skin game affects policy uncertain Motley Copy quote It sign weakness avoid showing signs Weakness defines black swan The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto)

 

    • The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto)
    • 1.3
    • 51
    • Hardcover
    • 444 pages
    • B00139XTG4
    • Nassim Nicholas Taleb
    • English
    • 24 December 2017

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