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☀ Broché Download @The Map and the Territory: Risk, Human Nature, and the Future of Forecasting ☜ Kindle Author Alan Greenspan ♓

☀ Broché Download @The Map and the Territory: Risk, Human Nature, and the Future of Forecasting ☜ Kindle Author Alan Greenspan ♓ ☀ Broché Download @The Map and the Territory: Risk, Human Nature, and the Future of Forecasting ☜ Kindle Author Alan Greenspan ♓ From The Map and the Territory by Alan Greenspan Reprinted by arrangement with The Penguin Press, a member of Penguin Group USA LLC, A Penguin Random House Company Copyright Alan Greenspan, 2013.Chapter 13BUFFERSNot a day goes by that does not reveal deterioration in some aspect of our nations public infrastructure, followed by a call for immediate action The average age of highways and streets, as estimated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, has increased from sixteen years to twenty five years since the early 1970s To those of us who have to drive over our increasingly pockmarked streets, numbers shouldnt be necessary Sewer systems and public hospital buildings have aged similarly Even our national parks are falling behind in maintenance.But the most visible aging of government assets, and possibly the most consequential, is that of our military Had we not had excess manufacturing capacity and infrastructure as we entered World War II, we could not have countered our enemies with overwhelming capacity to produce The size of budget deficits that prevailed during the war was a measure of the extent to which we marshaled the savings of the private sector to help fund the purchase of war materials But in order to get consumption down and savings up, rationing proved necessary.Since the end of the war, the average age of military buildings and other facilities has tripled If there is such a thing as a poster child of aged military equipment, it surely must be the fleet of B 52s, the long range strategic bomber It has a long distinguished history As I wrote in 1952, The long range intercontinental bomber tasks will be in the hands of a new swept wing eight jet bomber now undergoing testthe B 52 Its latest version, the B 52H, whose final production run ended in 1964, did yeoman service as recently as 2003 in Iraq It is scheduled to remain in service beyond 2040 I am certain that there are innumerable current B 52 pilots whose fathers, and conceivably grandfathers, flew earlier models of this renowned aircraft There are still eighty five H models, fitted with modern avionics, in our active inventory.The aging of naval ships has gained even greater prominence in the press Our aircraft carriers are expected to have a fifty year service life, and many of them are well up in nautical adulthood I hesitate to include the USS Constitution Old Ironsides , the oldest commissioned warship afloat, a wooden hulled frigate celebrated for its exploits in the War of 1812 It is in a class of its own It was first deployed in October 1797 and most assuredly is the most renowned piece of military equipment still in our inventory Its propulsion system is identified by the navy with mock seriousness as 42,710 square feet of sail on three masts.If Old Ironsides is the oldest naval vessel in our arsenal, the newest, scheduled to be delivered in 2015, is the aircraft carrier Gerald R Ford, the first in the Ford class of carriers that are being added to the aging Nimitz and Enterprise class carriers I can think of no appropriate tribute to my old boss, President Ford, than to have a leading edge of our military power named after him.The Abrams tank, the main battle tank of the army, is than thirty years old, as is the Bradley ard infantry carrier Much of the armys equipment, however, is new, fashioned largely for its operations in Iraq and Afghanistan Some of it, such as the large special trucks engineered to meet the devastation of roadside mines in many sensitive combat areas, may not be relevant in the future.It is not quite clear, however, how important the aging is to our national security It all depends on a forecast of who our enemies are going to be five to fifteen years from today Most analysts believe that the probability of head to head superpower confrontations like those that dominated the first four decades following World War II is very small, but no one seems sure Our military structure cannot significantly change quicklythe very long delivery lead times preclude it But the type of military hardware we procure in the years immediately ahead will depend very much on our longer term balance of power perspectives.The issue of equipment aging divides military and political tacticians and will likely continue to do so for the intermediate future I would hope that this debate is not resolved by another conflict in which American military capabilities are sorely tested.SO, TOO, THE PRIVATE SECTORThe private sector has not been immune from the aging of infrastructure Since the 1970s, the average age of manufacturing industry assets, for example, has increased from under eleven years to than sixteen years Similar aging is evident in wholesale trade, utilities, and air transport.The share of private nonresidential buildings in real GDP has been in long term decline since 1981, and those buildings are not being replaced, probably reflecting the slowdown in growth of the working age population fewer workers, fewer buildings , as well as the recent increased discounting since 2008 of expected incomes from very long lived assets.THE TASK AHEADThere can be little doubt that a major modernization of our infrastructure is long overdue It is easy to demonstrate the time and motor fuel wasted in traffic jams owing to failure to keep road capacity growing in line with the number of vehicles on the road But fixing the public infrastructure is no easy task Funding is the major obstacle Our fiscal position is daunting To balance the budget, we need to raise revenue by a fourth or cut outlays by a fifth, or some combination of the two We are unlikely to get close to balancing the budget even within ten years Increasing federal outlays on infrastructure will increase the deficit negative savings and must be matched, ex post, by a comparable rise in savings less capital investment by households and private business or by increasing our rate of borrowing from abroad To the extent that increased deficit spending curtails capital investment in other sectors, it is a depressant to economic growth in the short term and productivity in the long term But unaddressed is the question of the effect of infrastructure on productivity Rising outlays on infrastructure will, of course, increase nominal GDP, which, in turn, should increase the level of gross domestic private savings, but not nearly enough to be significant.We are no longer the nation that we were coming out of World War II, which built a visible public and private infrastructure while still diverting a large part of our GDP to Cold War defense We did it then by maintaining a savings rate out of household income of 10 percent Today, as Ive noted, that rate is in low single digits.THE LARGER ISSUEOur infrastructure deficiencies are part of a larger problem confronting the United Statesthe amount of our resources we set aside for contingencies There are some inventories that sit unused for yearsthe Strategic Petroleum Reserves, for one Some resources we produce stand idle for protracted periods and may in fact never be used vaccine stockpiles for epidemics that never happen and dykes along rivers that never reach flood levels By far our largest standby asset is, of course, our military.Such assets serve as guarantees against, for example, foreign invasion, flu epidemics, tsunamis, and hurricanes, none of which are predictable and may never happen They nonetheless require the building up of buffers of idle resources that are not otherwise engaged in the production of consumable goods and services They are employed only if and when a crisis emerges Such buffers address contingencies that range from uncertain but repetitive to rare and unpredictable The former are insurable because they offer a reasonably steady rate of return to insurers The latter are not.Individual fires cannot be predicted, but they happen often enough for almost all cities to create and fund fire departments, whose cost is tantamount to insurance premiums Health emergencies are not predictable but are also sufficiently repetitive to create health insurance, hospitals, and ambulances The buffer may encompass expensive building materials for example, special steels whose earthquake flexibility is needed for only a minute or two every half century, or lightning rods that could be struck every month, or every decade.The most visible insurables are life and property I suspect that the higher the standard of living, the larger the share of GDP that originates in private insurance Long term uncertain risks have indeterminate probability distributions and are hence not insurable Only risks on which actuaries can put a numerical probability are insurable Risks that are highly variable imply too unstable a rate of return.The choice of funding buffers is one of the most important decisions that societies must make, whether by conscious policy or by default If policy makers, private and public, choose to buffer their populations against every conceivable risk, the nations current standards of living would, of necessity, decline Funding such investments requires an increase in savings and, accordingly, a decline in immediate consumption Resources can be put to active use or on contingency standby status, but not both at the same time Buffers are a dormant investment that may lie idle and seemingly unproductive for most of their lives But they are included in our total real fixed assets and real net worth statistics It is no accident that earthquake protection of the extent employed in Japan, for example, has not been chosen by less prosperous countries at similar risk of a serious earthquake Those countries have either explicitly or implicitly chosen not to divert current consumption to fund such an eventuality Haiti, a very poor country, has not yet fully recovered from its 2010 earthquake It had neither built a protective infrastructure like Japans nor has it had resources to recover on its own Buffers are largely a luxury of rich nations Only rich nations have the resources to protect their populations against events with extremely low probabilities of occurrence.How much of its ongoing output should a society wish to devote to fending off once in fifty or one hundred year crises How is such a decision reached, and by whom While the decisions of what risks to take remain predominantly with private decision makers, the responses to low probability events such as the Japanese earthquake and tsunami of 2011 have been largely government scripted Although formal data are not available to gauge the depth and quality of our standby buffers, the aging and deterioration of our fixed capital stock, both public and private, is ample evidence that a subclass of those assets, standby buffers, is also in a state of decline.Larry Summers, Financial Times No other American economic policy maker in the past half century could have written so thoughtfully about the implications of the Enlightenment for economic policy or have attempted, as Greenspan did while in office and does again here, to compute the physical weight of all the goods that comprise American gross domestic product The range of topics and arguments makes this book a very important statement, whether one ultimately agrees or disagrees with the author..Greenspans range, vision and boldness is especially important at a time like the present, when Washington is preoccupied with the political and petty.Greenspan has written a major work A splendid book.Burton Malkiel, The Wall Street Journal The Map and the Territoryis a model of expositional clarity, with complex and recondite matters made accessible to the lay reader The book should be must reading for anyone interested in the way our financial markets workand sometimes fail to do so Forbes Compelling and hugely enlighteningThis exposition of a lifetime as a practicing economist is full of insights and lessons for financiers, security analysts, business students and public policy makers, especially Presidents, congressmen, central bankers and the FDIC, SEC, CFTC, FHLB It should be required reading for some of the insights into the way markets perform.N Gregory Mankiw, The New York Times Book Review The book offers much wisdom Greenspan sees the world through a different set of eyes than do many others in his field He is driven less by theory, by data and practical experience.Greenspans new book lays out his worldview in light of the financial crisis, the deep recession and the meager recovery of the past five years His critics often condemn him as an ideologue, but the book demonstrates the unfairness of that accusation On a wide range of topicsfrom monetary, fiscal and financial policy to productivity, inequality and globalizationhe offers readers a thoughtful, nuanced and open minded perspective, tempered by many years of having seen both business and public policy from the inside.Whether or not youre an economist, you cant help coming away from The Map and the Territory with greater insight into many of the crucial issues facing the nation Greenspans path to fame may have been unconventional, but after reading this book, youll understand why five American presidents turned to him and made him one of the great economic policy makers of our time. Wikimapia Let s describe the whole world Wikimapia is an online editable map you can any place on Earth Or just surf discovering tonns of already marked places Google Maps Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps Official MapQuest Maps, Driving Directions, Live Traffic Did know You customize before print Click drag to move around Position your mouse over use wheel zoom or out Bing trip planning, traffic cameras Map multiple locations, transit walking directions, live conditions, plan trips, satellite, aerial street side imagery Do with Bing Submarine Cable Map A comprehensive regularly updated interactive world major submarine cable systems landing stations Yahoo Yahoo Satellite View Traffic Rated best mapping experience Digital Attack Digital DDoS attacks globe Mars Loading Mars Map Sheraton Hong Kong Hotel Towers area Alan Greenspan Economist, Government Official Biography Watch videoAlan a financial adviser known for his service as chairman Federal Reserve Board United States from Alan was born New York City March Biography Facts Britannica Greenspan, City, York, US , American economist Governors System, whose chairmanship continued through administrations four presidents We have stock market bubble Jan sounding alarm about booming There are two bubbles bubble, we bond former People Blame Financial The disciple libertarian icon Ayn Rand met first challenge office by preventing crash spiraling History served five terms System He originally took August fill unexpired term member IMDb Self Men Who Built America USA has been married Andrea Mitchell since April previously Joan Investopedia th Chairman Reserve, appointed unprecedented consecutive between mid early Times Sep News Commentary archival information Times reared Washington Heights neighborhood After studying clarinet at Juilliard working professional musician, he earned BA MA PhD economics University Andrea Wikipedia October television journalist, anchor, commentator NBC News, based Washington, DC She Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent, reported Race White House broadcasts, including Nightly Lester Holt, Today, MSNBCShe anchors KBE l n r i p who Chair currently works private provides consulting firms company, Associates LLC First President Ronald Reagan bubble CNBC videoAs real long interest rates rise, prices fall, but that probably not cause wild swings, says chairman, speaks CNBC Sara Eisen state economy thoughts Trump administration trade policies Profiles Facebook profiles people named Join Facebook connect others may gives power Dr MD Book Appointment NY Dr dermatologist NY practicing years graduated Nwu Feinberg Sch Of Med specializes dermatology Wikiquote reappointed successive NYU Langone Health Meet doctor MD, Dermatologist, learn conditions treated, training, research Read British break EU tip videoFormer Fed told Friday UK vote leave European Union ushers period even worse than darkest days Age Turbulence Adventures From bestselling author Territory Capitalism incomparable reckoning contemporary world, channeled own experiences command room global longer greater effect other single living figure Following arc remarkable life Official Healthgrades Doctor Financial The Map and the Territory: Risk, Human Nature, and the Future of Forecasting

 

    • The Map and the Territory: Risk, Human Nature, and the Future of Forecasting
    • 2.1
    • 97
    • Broché
    • 1594204810
    • Alan Greenspan
    • Anglais
    • 19 May 2017

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